Why This Week Could Shake Global
Markets
As we move into the third week of
April 2025, global markets are poised for a rollercoaster ride. Several
high-impact economic events are scheduled that could spark major volatility
across forex, equities, and commodities. From central bank decisions to
inflation data and sentiment surveys—traders, this is not the week to sleep on
the calendar.
Let’s break down each day’s potential
market-moving data and what to watch for.
📅 Monday,
April 14
🇯🇵 Japan
Industrial Production m/m
- Forecast Threshold: 2.5%
- Market Impact: Bullish USDJPY if
actual is below 2.5%
Japan kicks off the week with its
industrial production figures. This release offers insight into the health of
Japan’s manufacturing sector. If the data disappoints (i.e., comes in below
2.5%), it signals a slowing economy and puts pressure on the yen—boosting
USDJPY as traders flee to the stronger dollar.
👉 Trading
Insight: Weak output could increase speculation that the Bank of Japan will
delay policy tightening.
📅 Tuesday,
April 15
🇪🇺 Germany ZEW
Economic Sentiment
- Bullish Threshold: Above
43.2
- Market Impact: Bullish EURUSD if
actual is above 43.2
This survey measures investor
confidence in Europe’s largest economy. A reading above 43.2 suggests that
institutional investors expect economic improvement, which is generally
supportive of the euro.
👉 Trading
Insight: A strong ZEW print could reduce expectations of ECB dovishness and
boost EURUSD.
📅 Wednesday,
April 16
🇺🇸 US Core
Retail Sales m/m
- Bullish Threshold: Above
0.1%
- Market Impact: Bullish USD Index if
actual is above 0.1%
Retail sales—especially the core
figure excluding autos—are a major pulse check on American consumers. A
surprise to the upside shows consumers are still spending despite inflation,
bolstering the case for a resilient US economy.
👉 Trading
Insight: Strong data could raise rate hike expectations or delay cuts,
lifting USD-index and USD-based pairs.
📅 Thursday,
April 17
🇪🇺 ECB Interest
Rate Decision
- Market Trigger: A cut below
2.65%
- Market Impact: Bearish EURUSD if cut
below 2.65%
All eyes will be on the European
Central Bank. If the ECB surprises markets with a rate cut below 2.65%,
it signals renewed concern over economic weakness or disinflation. This would
likely pressure the euro lower, particularly versus the dollar.
👉 Trading
Insight: Even a dovish tone without a cut may trigger selling pressure on
the euro.
📅 Friday,
April 18
🇯🇵 Japan Core
CPI m/m
- Bullish USDJPY Trigger: CPI
below 3%
- Market Impact: Bullish USDJPY if CPI
is below 3%
Ending the week is Japan’s core
inflation print. If inflation dips below 3%, it may ease pressure on the Bank
of Japan to tighten policy—again putting downward pressure on the yen
and pushing USDJPY higher.
👉 Trading
Insight: Persistent disinflation could cement Japan’s ultra-loose monetary
stance and weaken the yen further.
🧠 Final
Thoughts: Prepare for Volatility
This week is packed with potential
catalysts that could shape near-term trends in currency pairs like USDJPY
and EURUSD, while influencing broader risk sentiment across global
markets.
🔔 Pro Tips:
- Use tight risk management—especially
during central bank decisions.
- Stay updated on revisions or unexpected
political headlines (such as tariff updates or geopolitical shifts).
- Pair fundamental insights with technical levels to identify ideal entry/exit zones.